Sunday, December 18, 2011

Fitch says comprehensive euro zone deal "beyond reach" (Reuters)

ROME/BERLIN (Reuters) ? Credit rating agency Fitch told the euro zone on Friday it thinks a comprehensive solution to the bloc's debt crisis is beyond reach, as it put an number of the bloc's economies including Italy on watch for potential downgrades.

It reaffirmed France's top-notch triple-A rating but even here said the outlook was now negative over a longer term.

Underscoring the tensions within the bloc over the crisis that has spread relentlessly over the past two years, Italy's prime minister earlier urged European policymakers to beware of dividing the continent with their efforts to fight its debt crisis, warning against a "short-term hunger for rigor" in some countries, in a swipe at Germany.

Germany has led resistance to allowing the European Central Bank to ramp up its buying of government bonds on the open market to a big enough scale to douse the crisis.

Fitch said that following the EU summit a week ago it had concluded that "a 'comprehensive solution' to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach.

"Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. In Fitch's opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the ECB to mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity crises for potentially illiquid but solvent Euro Area Member States," Fitch said.

It put Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and Cyprus on negative watch. Another ratings agency, Standard & Poor's, had already warned 15 of the currency bloc's 17 members they were close to a downgrade.

Earlier German Chancellor Angela Merkel gained some respite from domestic pressure to take a tougher line in the euro zone crisis when Eurosceptics hostile to more bailouts lost a referendum in her junior coalition partner, the Free Democrats, aimed at blocking a permanent rescue fund.

Meanwhile, a first draft of a planned fiscal union treaty among euro zone countries and aspiring members, published on Friday, showed that countries could be taken to the European Court of Justice if they fail to meet agreed budget targets.

Merkel - under pressure from the revered Bundesbank to force debt-saddled euro zone countries to reform and save their way out of crisis with austerity measures - has led a push for automatic sanctions for deficit "sinners" in the bloc.

This has fed concerns that excessive belt-tightening in southern countries could send their economies into a negative spiral with no prospect of growing out of the crisis, while feeding resentment in the prosperous north.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said Europe's response to the debt crisis "should be wrapped in a long-term sustainable approach, not just to feed short-term hunger for rigor in some countries.

"To help European construction evolve in a way that unites, not divides, we cannot afford that the crisis in the euro zone brings us ... the risk of conflicts between the virtuous North and an allegedly vicious South," he told a conference in Rome.

In Germany, turnout in the FDP bailout referendum fell short of the necessary quorum of one-third of the party's membership, and only 44.2 percent voted for dissident lawmaker Frank Schaeffler's motion against the planned European Stability Mechanism.

A victory for the Eurosceptics could have brought down Merkel's centre-right coalition, but the outcome still left the FDP split, with its public support in tatters.

BANKS TO SHUN BONDS?

French officials have sought to prepare the public for the likelihood that Paris will lose its top-notch rating from S&P for the first time since 1975, playing down the potential setback and focusing attention instead on neighbouring Britain.

"The economic situation in Britain today is very worrying, and you'd rather be French than British in economic terms," Finance Minister Francois Baroin said in a radio interview, a day after Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said that if ratings agencies were even-handed, Britain deserved to be downgraded before France.

Britain's Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said French Prime Minister Francois Fillon had called him to explain that "it had not been his intention to call into question the UK's rating but to highlight that ratings agencies appeared more focused on economic governance than deficit levels."

Clegg's office said he accepted the explanation "but made the point that recent remarks from members of the French Government about the UK economy were simply unacceptable and that steps should be taken to calm the rhetoric."

Euro zone officials said potential downgrades, particularly from S&P, could raise the cost of borrowing for the region's existing EFSF bailout fund but would not make a big difference to its operations.

EFSF chief Klaus Regling told the Rome conference there was about 600 billion euros available to fight the crisis, more than Italy and Spain's combined funding needs for 2012.

"If Italy and Spain were to ask for support their gross financing needs for 2012 are less than that and I don't think they would need to be taken off the market," he said.

The EFSF has the option of providing first loss insurance on new bond issues, but the country concerned would have to make a formal request and negotiate conditionality, while the sum guaranteed would have to be agreed unanimously by EFSF members, subject to German parliamentary approval.

Euro zone countries are to hold a conference call next Monday to agree on a boost to the International Monetary Fund's lending capacity, as part of measures to help cope with the debt crisis, to which they will commit 150 billion euros, Slovak Finance Minister Ivan Miklos told Reuters.

The United States has refused to offer any additional funding and it remains to be seen how much non-European economies such as China, Russia, Brazil and India are willing to commit.

The European Central Bank has resisted calls to embark on unlimited purchases of euro zone sovereign bonds to quell the debt crisis, putting the onus back on governments and their collective financial firewalls.

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that euro zone governments were on the right track to restore market confidence and the ECB's bond-buy plan was "neither eternal nor infinite."

But in one intriguing hint on Friday, Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco told the Rome conference: "The impression is that there is only one way to convince markets and we'll work on that." He did not elaborate.

The comments came amid growing signs that banks are resisting pressure from governments to come to the aid of debt-choked euro zone countries by using cheap money lent by the ECB to buy more sovereign bonds.

With euro zone governments needing to sell almost 80 billion euros of fresh debt in January alone, the stand-off between policymakers and banks could turn the slow-burning debt crisis into a conflagration in the New Year.

The chief executive of UniCredit, one of Italy's two biggest banks, said this week using ECB money to buy government debt "wouldn't be logical."

In Greece, where the debt crisis began two years ago, a senior official of the EU/IMF troika team negotiating terms for a second bailout package said there was no guarantee that talks on the private sector's contribution would lead to a voluntary deal involving the bulk of its creditors.

Agreement has been held up by wrangling over issues ranging from the credit status and interest coupons on the new bonds to legal guarantees to be offered by the official sector. Another key question is how many sign up to a private sector debt swap.

Failure to secure agreement could force a disorderly default which might in turn trigger a wider emergency across the euro zone.

Asked if there was a risk of a disorderly Greek default, the troika official said: "Our objective is still to have a voluntary operation. If you ask me: is there a guarantee that there will be a voluntary operation? Of course there can never be a guarantee."

(Additional reporting by Steve Scherer in Rome, Annika Breidthardt in Berlin, Gareth Gore, Natsuko Waki, Kirsten Donovan and Ana Nicolaci da Costa in London, Martin Santa in Bratislava, Ingrid Melander in Athens; Writing by Paul Carrel and Paul Taylor/Ruth Pitchford; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/business/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111216/bs_nm/us_eurozone

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Saturday, December 17, 2011

The GOP's 'make-or-break' Sioux City debate: Winners and losers (The Week)

New York ? The Republican presidential candidates made their closing arguments in the final forum before Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses. Did anyone gain a last-minute edge?

Frontrunner Newt Gingrich was on the defensive ? again ? as the Republican candidates made their closing appeals to voters in the last debate before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses officially launch primary season (and inevitably weed out a candidate or two). Gingrich fended off competitors' claims that he's an unreliable conservative, calling them "laughable," and defended his consulting work for Fannie Mae. His chief rival, Mitt Romney, tried to stay above the fray and focus his attacks on President Obama. Who came out best in Sioux City's "make-or-break" debate? Here, a consensus list of the winners and losers:

WINNERS
Mitt Romney
Among the three candidates with any chance of winning Iowa, says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway, "the one that seemed to mostly dodge the fire this time around was Mitt Romney." He took the usual hits on the Massachusetts health care law and his history at Bain Capital, but he wasn't attacked nearly as aggressively as his chief rival Gingrich. "This may end up benefiting Romney in the long run since it seemed, once again, like he was the cool, calm guy standing above the fray while all the other candidates fought amongst themselves."

SEE MORE: The 'cheapest' primary in a decade: 5 theories

?

Michele Bachmann
The Tea Party favorite has tumbled since winning the Iowa straw poll in August, says Shawna Shepherd at CNN, but Bachmann held her own this time. She "had the sharpest attack lines" against Gingrich, saying he has made money through "influence-peddling," even if he's not technically a lobbyist. And she drew applause by calling Ron Paul's anti-war Iran policy the most "dangerous answer for American security" she's ever heard. Bachmann came off as a "true-blue conservative," says William Kristol in The Weekly Standard. This performance might be what she needed to start climbing back into the first-tier.

Newt Gingrich
The man to beat "did face criticism," says Kathie Obradovich at the Des Moines Register, "but it wasn't the open season on Gingrich that the Dec. 10 debate featured." The former House speaker "parried attacks for most of the first hour," and "gained back ground he may have lost in the second half." And the debate closed with the moderators handing Gingrich "a sugarplum," by making everyone "defend negative attacks on each other and giving Gingrich a chance to proclaim his positive campaign." Not a bad final impression with which to leave voters before a crucial vote.

SEE MORE: Is it really too late for a new GOP candidate to emerge?

?

LOSERS
Newt Gingrich
The "new Newt" ? the cool, unflappable frontrunner ? was on display much of the night, says Frank James at NPR. "But there were times when old Newt, the consummate Washington insider or proposer of crazy ideas, made an appearance." In those moments Gingrich did nothing to soothe the conservatives he needs to win the primaries, or the independents he would need in the general election.?

Ron Paul
Gingrich's most formidable rival in Iowa, according to polls, is Rep. Ron Paul, says Charles Babington at the Associated Press, but the libertarian-leaning Texan did himself no favors in Sioux City. He "expressed his anti-war, anti-interventionist views so vehemently that he may have turned off mainstream Republicans who otherwise might have helped him to a surprising first-place finish."

SEE MORE: Why Donald Trump dropped out of his own debate: 4 theories

?

Fence-sitters
This was the last chance for GOP primary voters to examine the candidates together, says Dan Balz and Philip Rucker at The Washington Post, but "there was no clear winner Thursday night and no obvious loser." Nobody committed a campaign-sinking gaffe, "and some of the strongest performances were turned in by candidates in the lower tier of the competition." Even Romney, who needs to gain lost ground from Gingrich, refrained from "direct encounters" and aimed his sharpest criticism at Obama. If voters were hoping for a game-changer, they were disappointed.

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'Batman' star Bale tries to visit China activist (omg!)

In this photo taken on Monday, Dec. 12, 2011, English actor Christian Bale speaks to journalists during an interview on the red carpet as he arrives for an event of the Zhang Yimou-directed new movie "The Flowers of War" in Beijing, China. Academy Award winner Christian Bale, in the midst of promoting a film he made in China some critics have called propaganda, got stopped trying to visit a blind activist living under house arrest, with a CNN camera crew in tow. CNN posted footage of a scuffle between Bale and the activist's guards on its website Friday, Dec. 16. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

BEIJING (AP) ? "Batman" star Christian Bale, in the midst of promoting a film he made in China that some critics have called propaganda, was physically stopped by government-backed guards from visiting a blind activist living under house arrest ? with a CNN crew in tow to record the scuffle.

CNN posted footage of the confrontation on its website Friday.

The run-in and publicity is likely to cause discomfort in China's government-backed film industry, which hopes Bale's movie "The Flowers of War" will be a creative success at home and abroad. The star's actions are sure to focus attention on the plight of Chen Guangcheng, guarded around the clock by thugs who have blocked dozens of reporters and fellow activists trying to see him in the past.

Bale was to leave China on Friday and his representatives could not immediately be reached for comment.

Bale, who won a best supporting actor Oscar for last year's "The Fighter," traveled Thursday with a crew from CNN to the village in eastern China where Chen, the blind lawyer, lives with his family in complete isolation.

They were stopped at the entrance to Dongshigu village in Shandong province by unidentified men.

The video footage shows Bale asking to see Chen, with a CNN producer providing interpretation, but being ordered by one of the guards to leave. He then asked why he was unable to pass through. The guards responded by trying to grab or punch a small video camera Bale was carrying.

"What I really wanted to do was to meet the man, shake his hand and say what an inspiration he is," Bale was quoted as saying by CNN.

Chen's case has been raised publicly by U.S. lawmakers and diplomats, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, all to no response from China.

CNN said Bale first learned of Chen from news reports when he was in China filming "The Flowers of War," China's official submission this year for best foreign language film Oscar.

"Chen Guangcheng is a newsworthy figure ... and as such it is in the interest of CNN's global viewers to hear from him," CNN said in a statement. "Mr. Bale reached out to CNN and invited us to join him on his journey to visit Chen."

Chen, a self-taught lawyer who was blinded by a fever in infancy, angered authorities after documenting forced late-term abortions and sterilizations and other abuses by overzealous authorities trying to meet population control goals in his rural community. He was imprisoned for allegedly instigating an attack on government offices and organizing a group of people to disrupt traffic, charges his supporters say were fabricated.

Although now officially free under the law, he has been confined to his home in the village eight hours' drive from Beijing and subjected to periodic beatings and other abuse, activists say.

While Bale's visit focuses new attention on Chen's case, CNN's role raises questions about activism and advocacy among reporters, said David Bandurski, editor of the China Media Project website at the University of Hong Kong.

"It made me instantly uncomfortable, wondering how it all came together. It raises questions about where the lines are drawn," Bandurski said.

The incident also drew strong interest ? most of it highly positive ? on social networking sites such as Twitter and its Chinese equivalent, Weibo.

Having their star's name pinging across the Internet in connection with such a politically sensitive subject puts promoters of "The Flowers of War" in a bind. The film opens in China on Friday and next week in the United States.

Directed by the renowned Zhang Yimou, it is also the most expensive Chinese movie ever made, at $94 million, some of which came from the state-owned Bank of China.

The movie centers on the 1937 sacking of the eastern city of Nanjing, a central event in China's pre-revolutionary "century of humiliation" and has been described by some critics as hewing to official propaganda portraying Chinese as heroic victims and Japanese as one-dimensional cartoon villains.

While China has the world's third-largest film industry ? both in box office and output ? it has made relatively little global impact. Story lines are often heavily influenced by the ruling Communist Party, whose culture commissars must approve scripts and have final say over whether a film gets released.

FILE - In this file photo taken Monday, Dec. 12, 2011, English actor Christian Bale speaks to journalists during an interview on the red carpet as he arrives for an event of the Zhang Yimou-directed new movie "The Flowers of War" in Beijing, China. Academy Award winner Bale, in the midst of promoting the film he made in China that some critics have called propaganda, has been stopped trying to visit a blind activist living under house arrest, with a CNN camera crew in tow. CNN posted footage of a scuffle between Bale and the activist's guards on its website Friday, Dec. 16. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)

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Friday, December 16, 2011

No State Too Small (TIME)

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Obama beseeches supporters to stick with him (AP)

WASHINGTON ? Imploring supporters to stick with him, President Barack Obama acknowledged Tuesday that his re-election is "not a slam dunk" ? despite his administration's achievements ? because of understandable public skepticism over the economy.

Addressing donors at a hotel near the White House, the president drew attention to his efforts to heal the economy, save the auto industry, end the Iraq war and overhaul health care.

But he said: "All those things don't mean that much to somebody who's still out of work right now. Or whose house is still underwater by $100,000."

Obama said his campaign will have to fight to take its message to voters. "This is going to be tough," he said.

Obama spoke hours after his top campaign advisers said they are uncertain about which Republican will emerge to challenge him next year but predicted a long GOP primary contest that they say will produce a weaker opponent in 2012.

Democrats have been targeting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the Republican most likely to challenge Obama but now say former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's surge in the polls has made the GOP contest very unpredictable.

Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod said in a briefing in Washington for reporters that he was unsure "what kind of candidate will be in the general election." He said he anticipated a lengthy primary contest that would eventually hurt the party's nominee.

Of the Republican candidates, Axelrod said: "They're being tugged to the right every day. I think they're mortgaging themselves for the general by tacking as far as they are." He said that would make it more difficult for the nominee "to scramble back" to the center and appeal to a broader base of the electorate for the November general election.

Romney and Gingrich remain locked in a close contest in early Republican voting states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina with less than a month before voters begin assessing the GOP field.

The campaign officials said the president's speech last week in Kansas offered a glimpse of what his message will be next year: His argument that the middle class has faced numerous challenges during the past decade and that the country's economic policies must give everyone a "fair shot and a fair share."

Obama made that case again in his remarks to donors, telling them "we're all in this together."

"That vision can contrast to a vision that basically says you are on your own," he said. "It's what this election was about in 2008; it's what this election is going to be about in 2012."

The campaign officials also claimed an organizational advantage over the GOP. They said they have more staffers on the ground in Iowa than the Republicans and have had about 1 million conversations with supporters and about 90,000 in-person meetings with volunteers since Obama launched his re-election campaign in April.

Obama's campaign outlined several potential paths to victory that would build upon states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 and winning in Western states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada or holding onto Southern states Obama captured in 2008, such as Virginia and North Carolina.

Obama's session with top campaign donors came ahead of the Dec. 31 deadline for the current fundraising quarter. Obama has raised more than $150 million for his campaign and the Democratic National Committee through the end of September.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/politics/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111213/ap_on_el_pr/us_obama_campaign

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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Francis Galton's novel about eugenics

Michael Marshall, environment reporter

GALT035(4).jpg(Image: ? Galton Collection, UCL)

How do you publish a novel arguing that the unfit, weak or mentally infirm should not be allowed to breed, and only those deemed ?high quality? be given the privilege of having children?

Well, you don?t. Francis Galton tried to in the first decade of the 20th century, but he died in 1911 before his eugenic novel Kantsaywhere could be published. His family promptly got hold of it and, horrified, destroyed almost all of it.

Now though, to mark the 100th anniversary of his death, University College London has published all that remains online. You can download the book from their website, but good luck with reading it: it is published in the form of scans of Galton?s typewritten manuscript, complete with scribbled corrections.

Galton was a polymath who variously invented a system for fingerprinting, pioneered weather maps and made major contributions to social science. But his memory has been tainted by his longstanding obsession with eugenics.

Kantsaywhere is his attempt to sell the idea of eugenics to British society. It?s the story of Professor Donoghue, who arrives in the eugenic state of Kantsaywhere and must pass a series of tests in order to be accepted into the society and marry his love, Augusta Allfancy. The book recounts how Donoghue is tested for his strength, intelligence and aesthetic sense, and attempts to demonstrate that his ancestors had ?good genes?.

Too much has been removed to judge the book on its literary merits. As it stands Donoghue is a bland narrator, with no discernible personality, and there are no other characters or plot developments. But this may be the result of the heavy editing. Meanwhile Donoghue?s love Augusta has been almost entirely removed, apparently along with a number of explicit sex scenes.

The book could have done with the sex, for in its current form it is irremediably dry. Galton describes the tests, and the principles of the society, in detail. That might have worked perfectly well if it had been integrated into a story with characters and setting, but in this form it?s like reading a textbook.

However, even in this form, it is hard to escape a ghastly fascination with Galton?s vision of a eugenic society. What is most striking is that, in all the tests he envisions people going through before they can breed, nobody is ever tested on their sense of morality. The tests aren?t concerned with whether people are kind, sharing, empathic or cooperative. Apparently, these qualities weren?t as important to Galton?s perfect society as being able to sing in tune or write an insightful essay, both of which are systematically measured.

In that chilling disdain for emotion and feeling, Galton?s novel presaged the many inhuman horrors of the two world wars to come.

The remaining portions of Kantsaywhere were made available online by University College London to mark the 100th anniversary of Francis Galton's death.

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

U.S. official says no sign Iran shot down drone (Reuters)

TEHRAN (Reuters) ? Iranian media reported on Sunday that their country's military had shot down a U.S. reconnaissance drone in eastern Iran, but a U.S. official said there was no indication the aircraft had been shot down.

NATO's U.S.-led mission in neighbouring Afghanistan said the Iranian report could refer to an unarmed U.S. spy drone that went missing there last week.

The incident comes at a time when Tehran is trying to contain foreign outrage at the storming of the British embassy on Tuesday, after London announced sanctions on Iran's central bank in connection with Iran's nuclear enrichment programme.

Iran has announced several times in the past that it shot down U.S., Israeli or British drones, in incidents that did not provoke high-profile responses.

"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted a military source as saying.

"The spy drone, which has been downed with little damage, was seized by the Iranian armed forces," the source said. "The Iranian military's response to the American spy drone's violation of our airspace will not be limited to Iran's borders."

Iranian officials were not available to comment further.

NATO's International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan said in a statement: "The UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) to which the Iranians are referring may be a U.S. unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week.

"The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status."

A U.S. official, who asked not to be named, said: "There is absolutely no indication up to this point that Iranians shot down this drone."

ISOLATION

Tuesday's storming of the British embassy attracted swift condemnation from around the world, further isolating Iran.

Britain evacuated its diplomatic staff from Tehran and expelled Iranian diplomats from London in retaliation. Several other EU members like Germany, France and Spain also recalled their ambassadors from Tehran.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran's nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails to resolve a dispute over a programme they suspect is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Iran says it would respond to any strike by attacking Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

In January Iran said it shot down two unmanned Western reconnaissance drones in the Gulf. In July Iran said it had shot down an unmanned U.S. spy plane over the holy city of Qom, near its Fordu nuclear site.

Western nations on Thursday significantly tightened sanctions against Iran, with the European Union expanding an Iranian blacklist and the U.S. Senate passing a measure that could severely disrupt Iran's oil income.

Iran warned the West on Sunday any move to block its oil exports would more than double crude prices with devastating consequences on a fragile global economy.

"As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil price would soar to above $250 a barrel," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the Sharq newspaper.

So far neither Washington nor Brussels has finalised a move against Iran's oil trade or its central bank. Crude prices were pushed up over the British embassy storming with ICE Brent January crude up 95 cents on Friday to settle at $109.94 a barrel.

(Additional reporting by Ramin Mostafavi in Tehran, Caren Bohan and David Alexander in Washington and Missy Ryan in Bonn; Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Peter Graff)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/world/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111204/wl_nm/us_iran_usa_drone

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